The World Bank has lowered Nigeria’s economic outlook for the coming years. The revision signals growing pressure on Africa’s largest economy despite signs of stability.
The downgrade has drawn attention because it comes at a time when many expected stronger recovery. However, lingering structural issues appear to be slowing progress more than anticipated.
According to the World Bank’s April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” growth is expected to average 4.1% in 2026. This is lower than the earlier 4.4% projection made in October 2025.
Moreover, projections for 2027 and 2028 were also adjusted. Growth is now expected to reach 4.2% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028.
The report noted that economic conditions are improving gradually. However, several long-standing challenges continue to limit faster growth.
The services sector is expected to lead expansion. Areas like ICT, finance, and real estate are seen as key drivers. Meanwhile, agriculture and industry are projected to grow more slowly.
In addition, inflation is expected to decline steadily. It is projected to drop from 23% in 2025 to 14.9% in 2026. Furthermore, it could fall to 10.7% by 2028.
This trend has been linked to tighter policies and better supply conditions.
The report warned that poverty levels are still high. Therefore, improvements may be slow due to rising fuel prices and global tensions.
“Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,”
Meanwhile, several risks continue to threaten Nigeria’s outlook. These include unstable commodity prices, global financial tightening, and ongoing security challenges.
Furthermore, policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections could affect investor confidence.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected at 4.1% in 2026. However, this figure also reflects a slight downgrade from earlier expectations.
Despite this, some positive signs were highlighted. Improved macroeconomic stability and stronger currencies are supporting consumption and investment in several countries.
