China’s population fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, signaling a troubling trend for the world’s second-largest economy.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the population dropped from 1.410 billion in 2023 to 1.408 billion by the end of last year. 
This extended the demographic decline that began after six decades of consistent growth, with the country now facing the dual challenges of a rapidly aging population and persistently low birth rates.
Once the most populous country globally, China was overtaken by India in 2023.
Despite efforts such as the removal of the strict one-child policy in 2016 and the introduction of a three-child policy in 2021, the government has struggled to reverse the downward trend.
Experts attribute this decline to the soaring cost of living, increased focus on higher education and career advancement among women, and gender discrimination in the workforce.
Speaking to AFP, Yun Zhou, a sociologist at the University of Michigan, highlighted the ongoing economic pressures faced by young Chinese people.
“Population decline is likely to continue due to gloomy economic prospects for young people and as Chinese women confront entrenched labor market gender discriminations,” Zhou said.
Meanwhile, data revealed an uptick in China’s birth rate, rising slightly to 6.77 per 1,000 people from previous years.
However, experts have cautioned that this increase is unlikely to reverse the long-term demographic decline.
He Yafu, an independent demographer, suggested the temporary rise in births could be attributed to women delaying childbirth during the pandemic or due to increased marriages during auspicious periods like the Year of the Dragon.
“In the long term, the trends of declining births, overall population contraction, and rapid aging remain unchanged,” Zhao Litao, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute, added.
The country’s aging population is adding to the challenges.
By 2035, nearly one-third of China’s population is expected to be over 60, further straining public health and pension systems.
In response, officials introduced new policies, including raising the statutory retirement age, effective January 1, to reflect improvements in living conditions and health standards.
As China grapples with slowing economic growth and mounting pressure on its social systems, experts agree that more robust policies are essential to encourage childbirth and maintain a sustainable workforce.
“Unless strong policies to encourage childbirth are introduced… the proportion of the elderly population will continue to rise,” He Yafu warned.
The ongoing demographic challenges highlight the urgency for China’s leadership to adopt comprehensive reforms that address these population trends.
