The Central Bank of Nigeria has projected that petrol prices may rise sharply in 2026, with Premium Motor Spirit expected to sell for about ₦950 per litre.
The projection has surprised many Nigerians, especially at a time when fuel prices recently dropped due to increased local refining.
The outlook was contained in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, which laid out assumptions guiding the forecast. According to the report, the estimate was based on an average crude oil price of $55 per barrel in 2026 and an exchange rate of about ₦1,400 to the dollar.
Currently, petrol prices remain lower than the projection. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has fixed its ex-gantry price at ₦699 per litre. Meanwhile, the pump price at MRS Oil, an authorised distributor, stands at ₦739 per litre.
However, the CBN warned that these lower prices may not hold over the medium term. Under its forecast, the bank expects PMS prices to hover around ₦950 per litre in 2026 if current assumptions play out.
In its report, the CBN assumed domestic crude oil production of about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the period.
Moreover, it projected improved efficiency in the foreign exchange market. Stronger capital inflows and a current account surplus were also highlighted as supporting factors.
The bank noted that increased private-sector investment, especially in domestic refining, would support growth.
Furthermore, rising crude output, improved security around oil facilities, and expanding refining capacity were expected to improve fuel supply conditions.
Inflation was also addressed in the outlook. The CBN projected that headline inflation would ease to 12.94 percent in 2026.
This represents a significant drop from the estimated 21.26 percent in 2025. According to the bank, lower food prices and easing PMS costs could drive this moderation.
Recent market developments support this trend. Prices declined after Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-gantry rate from ₦828 to ₦699 per litre. The refinery also enforced a pump price of ₦739 through MRS Oil. Meanwhile, rival fuel stations reportedly lowered prices to retain customers.
However, the refinery has issued a strong warning. Dangote Petroleum Refinery said petrol prices could rise to as high as ₦1,400 per litre if Nigeria returns to heavy fuel imports.
According to the refinery, local production has helped stabilise the downstream sector.
