China’s population has declined for the fourth consecutive year, a development that has surprised many policymakers despite aggressive efforts to encourage childbirth.
Official data released on Monday confirmed that the world’s second-most populous country continues to shrink.
According to the figures, China’s total population dropped to about 1.404 billion in 2025, roughly three million fewer people than the previous year.
The decline has occurred even as authorities have rolled out several pro-birth measures.
Over the past decade, policies have been adjusted to reverse years of tight population control. However, the results have remained limited.
A decade after scrapping the one-child policy, Chinese officials have tried a mix of incentives and reforms.
These measures have included cash subsidies, support for childcare, and tax relief for families.
In addition, some local governments experimented with unconventional steps, including taxing condoms and removing levies on matchmakers and daycare centres.
As the Brookings Institution noted in a 2016 report, “China’s one-child policy will be remembered as one of the costliest lessons of misguided public policymaking.” That assessment appears increasingly relevant today.
Birth rates have now dropped to their lowest level since 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was founded. In 2025, only 5.63 births per 1,000 people were recorded.
This figure represents the weakest birth rate ever documented in the country’s modern history.
In total, just 7.92 million babies were born last year. This marked a sharp fall of 1.62 million births, or about 17 percent, compared with 2024. In 2023, India overtook China.
Moreover, China has already lost its long-held status as the world’s most populous nation.
